TikTok iOS - Which Conversion Metric to Trust?

Hey everyone,

We recently launched our first TikTok iOS mobile app campaign and are trying to figure out which conversion metric to trust for performance evaluation. We are using Branch as our MMP with SAN integration and PAM enabled.

For the same period we are seeing four different numbers:

- Branch (MMP): 34 trials
- TikTok Conversions: 18 trials
- TikTok Conversions (SKAN): 23 trials

From what we understand:
- TikTok Conversions uses click and view-through attribution for ATT opted-in users only
- TikTok Conversions (SKAN) comes from Apple's SKAdNetwork framework, covering all iOS users, including opted-out
- Branch captures the broadest set via probabilistic modelling and PAM but may include some over-attribution

A few questions for the group:

1. Which of these metrics do you use as your primary benchmark for evaluating TikTok iOS campaign performance and making budget decisions?

2. Do you trust TikTok Conversions (SKAN) as a reliable deterministic number?

3. How do you reconcile the gap between your MMP and TikTok's reported conversions? Do you apply an adjustment factor or use a blended approach?

Any insight from those who have been running TikTok iOS campaigns with an MMP would be really appreciated.

Thanks

My two cents:
first - don't run campaigns with TikTok based on SKAN. Go with the probabilistic attribution.
second - try to confirm that the campaigns have some incrementality, either by looking at the blended or by looking at the app referral traffic on your app store connect insights

regarding your Qs:
1 - I check TikTok numbers, and then I check the incrementality in the baseline plus the traffic in App Store Connect.
2 - no
3 - just answered above

Thanks for the response.

When you say "Don't run campaigns based on SKAN. Go with probabilistic attribution." Does that mean this current setup needs to have the checkbox unchecked for "SKAN Attribution"? (see image attached)

Will it automatically use probabilistic attribution if we uncheck it?

Side note: We've confirmed with Branch that our setup is correct for PAM.

yes exactly, the checkbox needs to be off and for that, you need to run SKAN first for a couple of days.
When you run with SKAN (checkbox ON), you dont use probabilistic so you'll deal with signal delays and so on (SKAN downsides basically)

Thanks. So we ran the campaign for a week with the SKAN checkbox enabled, but TikTok doesn't allow us to uncheck it once a campaign has started.

Should we now create a new campaign with SKAN disabled to switch to probabilistic attribution via Branch, or how do we turn it off if TikTok doesn't even allow it once the campaign has been started?

nono, you run with SKAN checkbox and then you should unlock the possibility of running a new one without the checkbox (using probabilistic)

What do you mean by "we should unlock the possibility of running a new one without the checkbox (using probabilistic)". Do we start a new campaign with SKAN unchecked? The SKAN checkbox is at the campaign level settings and cannot be disabled on the existing campaign.

nonono,
1- You run the app campaign using SKAN (checkbox ON) for a week
2- After a week, you run a NEW campaign and then you should be able to uncheck the checkbox of SKAN if you did the partner setup correctly with Branch, which would mean that you would be relying on ADC (probabilistic attribution)

We started running the campaign with SKAN unchecked and weren't seeing any install data in TikTok Ads Manager, and only 1 trial. Branch shows 17 installs and 2 trials... We also reached out to TikTok support to see what they thought.

I wanted to share what the TikTok Support team said to us: (Not sure if it's all true but worth a mention)

TikTok support said:

1. Disabling SKAN does not improve campaign performance or optimization — it simply removes SKAN attribution data and bypasses the 15 campaign cap
2. They recommend keeping SKAN enabled alongside Branch SAN for the most complete attribution and reporting
3. Disabling SKAN should only be considered if the campaign cap has been reached and losing SKAN data is acceptable

1 and 2 are correct now but I always disable the skan checkbox anyway because in the past you had to really disable the checkbox to run probabilistic attribution, and although they are now saying that the campaign is measuring both signals, I still believe that by disabling the SKAN checkbox the campaign is fully relying on probabilistic conversions.

Regarding the Branch setup, it's a long time since I don't use Branch on TikTok, so unfortunately I can't help you there that much. I recommend what you are doing, which is being in touch with the Branch support team, which is pretty fast at responding